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Project Management, as Taught by Eli Goldratt · Lesson 4 of 7

The vicious cycle

Run a well-padded project a thousand times and it is still late two times out of three. Watch the vicious cycle of blame and more safety, then step into a multi-project matrix, where project managers carry the responsibility, resource managers serve many masters, and priorities are set by the level of screaming.

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A thousand runs of one project

How much do these mechanisms matter, in numbers? Goldratt ran a project a thousand times on a simulator. Each task had an 80% estimate with ten days of safety built in, and each resource type had only one unit. The promised completion: 140 days.

With ten days of safety in every task, what is the chance of finishing late?

  • Below 10%
  • About 30%
  • More than 65%

In the simulation, the median completion came well after 140 days: more than a 65% chance of being late, and more than a 10% chance of being very late. The safety was there; the mechanisms wasted it.

Will more safety solve it?

The natural response to a late project is to add safety. Follow what happens:

  1. The project is late. We blame the tasks that exceeded their commitments.
  2. On the next project, the blamed tasks take more safety.
  3. The next project is planned to take even longer.
  4. We keep the mechanisms that stop delays and gains from compensating each other.
  5. The project still doesn’t finish within its commitments.

That is a vicious cycle. Lead times grow until the market puts a cap on them: clients simply won’t accept longer.

The multi-project matrix

Most organisations don’t run one project; they run many, with shared resources organised as a matrix:

  • Project managers synchronise the work of many types of resources to meet the commitments of one project.
  • Resource managers (department managers) manage one type of resource doing one type of task across many projects.

The people who actually do the tasks don’t report to the project manager; they report to their resource manager.

One morning in Leo’s life.

Designer: “Sorry, my boss reassigned me.”

Tester: “I can’t. My boss gave me only one week for your project.”

Draughtsman: “I have to finish another task first.”

Fitter: “My boss authorised only four people. If you don’t like it, speak to my boss.”

Programmer: “I was told to work on project C.”

The project manager carries all the responsibility for the project, and has almost no authority.

Now turn the camera to Priya, the design department’s resource manager. She serves many masters: every project manager fights for her people.

Project manager A: “I need it right away!”

Project manager B: “Hey, you promised. Where is it?”

Project manager C: “But you promised me two days ago!”

Project manager D: “I can’t wait. I’m already behind schedule.”

Project manager E: “How come you serve everyone else but me?”

Priya: “I serve many projects. Each one claims to be the most important. How am I supposed to set priorities?”

In practice, priorities are set by the level of screaming, and people’s work is constantly interrupted. That brings us to the mechanism Goldratt saw as the biggest single cause of long project lead times: bad multitasking.

Pause and think: why can’t Leo simply demand his people back?

  • The resource manager has five other project managers with the same demand
  • Because Leo isn’t senior enough
  • Because the people don’t want to work on his project, which has a reputation for being late and badly run

Nobody is behaving badly. Every project manager is doing their job, and the system has no mechanism for priorities, so the loudest voice wins, and everyone’s work gets chopped up.

Check your understanding

Answer all five. Get four right to complete the lesson.

1. In the 1,000-run simulation, with 10 days of safety per task, the chance of being late was…

  • Under 10%
  • About 20%
  • About 50%
  • More than 65%

And more than 10% chance of being very late.

2. Adding safety to blamed tasks leads to…

  • On-time projects, since the risky tasks now have enough time
  • Longer plans and still-late projects: a vicious cycle
  • Lower costs
  • Happier clients

The mechanisms that waste safety are untouched.

3. What eventually caps the growth in lead times?

  • Management
  • Software
  • The market
  • Resource managers

Clients won’t accept longer.

4. In a matrix, the people doing the tasks report to…

  • Their resource manager
  • The project manager
  • The client
  • Nobody

Responsibility without authority for the project manager.

5. Without a mechanism, priorities are set by…

  • Due dates
  • Profit
  • The level of screaming
  • Alphabetical order

And work is constantly interrupted.