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Advanced Fundamentals · Lesson 6 of 8

Testing the solution

An injection that looks good can still backfire. The future reality tree checks that it delivers the results you want, and negative branches turn objections into a stronger solution, because people are good.

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You have found the core conflict and an injection that dissolves it. Before committing, TOC asks its second question: what to change to? And it answers it by testing the solution on paper first.

The future reality tree

A future reality tree (FRT) is a what-if exercise. It uses the same if-then logic as the current reality tree, but runs it forward from the injection:

  1. Start with the injection, or injections. One is rarely enough.
  2. Map forward: if this injection exists, what follows? And then?
  3. Keep going until you reach the desirable effects, the opposites of the undesirable effects in the current reality tree.
  4. At each step, ask: does this also cause anything undesirable?

A complete future reality tree shows that the solution delivers every desirable effect, without creating new problems.

Tool Question Logic
Current reality tree What to change? If-then, from causes to today’s symptoms
Conflict cloud What holds the problem in place? In order to, we must
Future reality tree What to change to? If-then, from injections to tomorrow’s results
Prerequisite and transition trees How to cause the change? Necessity, then action sequence

Negative branches

A negative branch reservation (NBR) traces how an injection could lead to something bad. It isn’t a reason to drop the injection; it’s a way to strengthen it.

  1. State the injection.
  2. Follow the logic forward.
  3. Find where the chain turns negative.
  4. Trim the branch: change the injection, or add another, to cut the chain before it reaches the bad effect.
  5. Re-check that the fix doesn’t start a new negative branch.

Pause and think: the injection is “release only the orders needed in the next two weeks.” The sales head objects: “Then urgent new orders will wait behind the plan.” What do you do?

  • Overrule the objection
  • Build the negative branch with the sales head, then trim it, for example by keeping a small share of capacity for urgent orders
  • Drop the injection
  • Ignore it until it happens

The objection is data. Mapping it together turns resistance into collaboration, and the trimmed injection is stronger than the original.

The third belief: people are good

Why treat objections as contributions rather than resistance? Because of TOC’s third belief, the inherent goodness of people. When people resist or behave badly, it is almost always because their measures, conflicts or past experience make that behaviour rational for them. Before blaming the person, look for the conflict or the measure behind the behaviour.

This changes how a change is introduced. People rarely resist a change itself; they resist the risks they see in it that nobody has addressed. Each such risk is a negative branch. Surface them, trim them, and the solution becomes win-win-win: good for the company, for the people who must do the work, and for the customers.

Exercise: objections to “cut the production buffer from four weeks to two”

  • “Customers who order at short notice will be let down.”
  • “The orders already on the floor will be squeezed for time.”
  • “The consultant proposing this has never worked in our industry.”
  • “If a supplier is late, we’ll have less time to recover.”

Check your understanding

Answer all five. Get four right to complete the lesson.

1. A future reality tree answers…

  • What to change to?
  • What to change?
  • How to cause the change?
  • Who is responsible?

It tests the solution before implementing it.

2. A future reality tree starts from…

  • The undesirable effects
  • The conflict cloud’s objective
  • The injections
  • The budget

And runs forward to the desirable effects.

3. When you find a negative branch, you should usually…

  • Drop the injection
  • Ignore it
  • Blame whoever raised it
  • Trim it by changing the injection or adding another

An NBR strengthens the solution.

4. The belief that “people are good” suggests that when people behave badly…

  • They should be replaced
  • Look for the measure or conflict that makes the behaviour rational for them
  • They are lazy
  • Nothing can be done

Change the system, not the people.

5. A win-win-win solution is good for…

  • Only the company
  • Only the customers
  • The company, the people who do the work, and the customers
  • The consultants

That’s what surfacing and trimming negative branches achieves.