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Thinking Process Workshop · Lesson 2 of 9

Building a conflict cloud

Behind a chronic problem there is usually a conflict. Learn the five boxes of a cloud, the guidelines for wording each, and the logic checks that turn five boxes into a real cloud. Follow a worked case, then build your own.

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Why clouds?

Think of a dilemma you couldn’t decide. A disagreement where you were sure you were right but couldn’t get buy-in. A solution you implemented and later had to withdraw. Each of these is a conflict: to protect one important need, we feel we must do one thing; to protect another, we must do the opposite. Most chronic problems are held in place by such a conflict, and most “solutions” are compromises that leave both needs partly unmet.

The conflict cloud (also called the evaporating cloud) is the main tool for understanding a conflict and dissolving it.

The five boxes

ACommon objective BNeed CNeed DAction for B D′Action for C
  • A, the objective: what both sides want.
  • B and C, the needs: two necessary conditions for reaching A.
  • D and D′, the actions: what each need seems to require. D and D′ are in conflict.

Every arrow is necessity logic, read “in order to (box at the tip), we must (box at the tail)”. And in a real cloud, D endangers C, and D′ endangers B. If that isn’t so, you have five boxes and five arrows, but not a cloud.

Guidelines for wording the boxes

  1. Every entity is a whole sentence.
  2. No entity contains internal causality: no “because”, “due to”, “in order to”.
  3. D and D′ are actions in clear, direct conflict: you can’t do both.
  4. B and C are real, positive needs: what the actions give us, not the actions again.

A worked case: the president’s cloud

In our company we have a real problem. Our president doesn’t allow any supplier onto the shop floor. He doesn’t want them to see the processes we use to upgrade their material, which is our product’s competitive advantage. He is afraid they will copy our processes and sell the upgraded material to our competitors.

We can’t afford that. Competition is fierce and it is getting harder to keep our market share, especially because production isn’t effective enough: we lose a lot of capacity upgrading material. We need material from our suppliers that can be used without upgrading.

I have talked to the president many times, and in the whole of last year he allowed only three suppliers to visit.

Checking the logic

Read the cloud aloud, one arrow at a time:

  1. In order to [A], we must [B].
  2. In order to [B], we must [D].
  3. In order to [A], we must [C].
  4. In order to [C], we must [D′].
  5. [D] and [D′] are in conflict.
  6. [D] jeopardises achieving [C].
  7. [D′] jeopardises achieving [B].

If a sentence sounds odd, change the wording until it flows. Don’t move on until all seven are true for the people involved.

The three stages

  1. Understand the problem: write a short storyline, choose the type of cloud (next lesson), build it, check the language and the logic, and improve it.
  2. Surface the assumptions behind every arrow (lesson 4).
  3. Find the solution: challenge the assumptions and choose an injection that satisfies both B and C (lesson 5).

Pause and think: someone writes D as “Production is too slow because of upgrading”. What’s wrong?

  • Nothing
  • It isn’t an action, and it contains internal causality
  • It is too short
  • It belongs in A, since it describes the whole problem

D must be an action someone takes, and no box may contain a cause and effect. A problem statement like this is a UDE; the cloud asks what action we take, and what we are protecting.

Workbook: your cloud

Take a recent problem from your own work: a dilemma, a disagreement or a recurring UDE from your list. Write the storyline, choose the type (if unsure, keep “UDE cloud” for now), and fill the five boxes. Press Check my work. You’ll add assumptions and an injection to this same cloud in lessons 4 and 5.

Check your understanding

Answer all five. Get four right to complete the lesson.

1. The arrows of a cloud are read…

  • If… then…
  • Because… therefore…
  • In order to… we must…
  • Either… or…

A cloud uses necessity logic.

2. For five boxes to be a real cloud…

  • D must endanger C, and D′ must endanger B
  • A must be a number
  • B and C must be actions that lead to A
  • D and D′ must agree

Otherwise there is no conflict to resolve.

3. Which is a well-worded D?

  • Suppliers
  • Because suppliers copy us
  • Market share is falling
  • Let suppliers visit the shop floor

A whole sentence, an action, no causality inside.

4. B and C are…

  • Two conflicting actions that can’t both be taken
  • Two needs, each a necessary condition for A
  • Two assumptions
  • Two UDEs

They answer “to achieve what?” for D and D′.

5. In the president’s cloud, what is A?

  • Protect the competitive advantage
  • Let suppliers visit
  • Maintain the market share
  • Upgrade the material

Both the president and the writer want to keep the market share.