Lesson 4: Surfacing assumptions

What is an assumption?

Every “in order to… we must…” claims a cause-and-effect relationship. Assumptions are what we use to support that claim: facts, observations, beliefs, expectations, experiences, interpretations, principles, data. Most are never said out loud. Some are true. Some are true only in certain situations. And at least one, in every chronic conflict, is false. That is the one we are looking for.

To surface them, read each arrow and finish the sentence:

In order to [tip of the arrow], we must [tail of the arrow], because…

What follows “because” is an assumption.

B–D, C–D′ and D–D′ are mandatory. Surface two or three for each.
A–B and A–C are desirable.

Four rules for writing an assumption

1. Refer to both entities, and bring in a third element. The statement after “because” should contain words that refer to the “in order to” part and to the “we must” part, and introduce something new.

In order to maintain the market share, we must protect the product’s competitive advantage, because the product’s competitive advantage is a key criterion in customers’ purchase decisions.

2. Read it as “if we want… and if… then we must…”. The sentence must make sense, and the “and if” part must say something different from the “if we want” part.

If we want to maintain the market share, and if customers buy because of our unique product material, then we must protect the product’s competitive advantage.

3. Explain the link, not one entity. An assumption doesn’t answer “to achieve what?”, and it isn’t a repetition or expansion of one of the boxes. “…because the company is losing market share” explains nothing about the arrow.

4. Ask about the current prevailing mechanism. How exactly, today, does the “we must” achieve the “in order to”? This question often reveals that there is another mechanism that would work just as well, and that is where injections come from.

Assumptions under the conflict arrow

Under D–D′, the assumptions explain why we can’t do both. Usually the answer is something we lack: knowledge, a method, rules, infrastructure, principles, regulation, a procedure, mutual trust, mutual respect, willingness to cooperate.

We can’t both let suppliers in and keep them out, because there is no way to show suppliers how we use their material without showing them how we upgrade it.

Five typical mistakes

Mistake	Example (president’s cloud)	Why it fails
Reverse repetition	To maintain market share, we must protect the competitive advantage, because the competitive advantage is important for market share.	It says the arrow again, backwards.
“It is the only way”	…because it is the only way to protect market share.	Adds nothing that isn’t already in the cloud.
Explaining one entity	To protect the competitive advantage, the president must not let suppliers in, because unique material makes the product competitive.	Explains C only, not the link to D′.
Stating “to achieve what?”	…must not let suppliers in, because the company must stay the only provider of the unique material.	Answers what D′ is for: a need, not a reason.
Irrelevant assumption	…because competition in the industry is fierce.	True and related, but it doesn’t explain this arrow.

Exercise: in order to protect the competitive advantage (C), we must not let suppliers visit the shop floor (D′), because…

…a supplier who sees our upgrading process can copy it and sell the upgraded material to our competitors.
…keeping suppliers out protects our advantage.
…our upgraded material is what makes the product competitive.
…there is no other way to protect it.

Challenging an assumption

Once assumptions are on paper, question each one:

Is it really so?
Always? In all situations? In all environments?

For example: “Is it really so that suppliers can produce the same product?” What do customers buy from us: only the physical product, or also our service, reliability and know-how? What are all the components of our competitive advantage? Questions like these crack the assumption open.

Pause and think: which two questions are typically used to challenge assumptions?

Is it really so? And is it worth the cost to change it?
Is it cost-effective? And is it always so?
Is it really so? And is it always so, in all situations?
Who said so? And when?

“Is it really so?” tests the claim. “Always?” finds the situations where it doesn’t hold, which are often enough to dissolve the conflict.

Workbook: assumptions for your cloud

Your cloud from lessons 2 and 3 is below. Surface two or three assumptions under B–D, C–D′ and D–D′, and if you can, under A–B and A–C. Read each arrow aloud before you write. Then press Check my work: it looks for the five typical mistakes and for assumptions that touch only one box.

Check your understanding

Answer all five. Get four right to complete the lesson.

1. Which arrows must always have assumptions surfaced?

A–B and A–C
B–D, C–D′ and D–D′
Only D–D′
None; it’s optional

A–B and A–C are desirable too.

2. A good assumption…

Restates the arrow
Explains why one of the boxes matters so much to the company
Says it is the only way
Refers to both entities and brings in a third element

It explains the link, not an entity.

3. Assumptions under D–D′ usually say…

Why D is good for the company and its customers
What A is
Why both can’t be done: often something we lack
Who is to blame

That lack is often what an injection supplies.

4. “…because the company must stay the only provider of the material” is the mistake of…

Stating “to achieve what?”
A perfect assumption
Clarity
Cause insufficiency

It names a goal, not a reason the link holds.

5. Why ask about the current prevailing mechanism?

To find who designed it
It often reveals another mechanism that would work as well
To measure it
To document the process for the quality manual and future training

How exactly does the action achieve the need today?